Content area
Full text
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is: to provide a systematic review of the existing literature on the topic area of forecasting technology obsolescence and to provide guidelines and recommendations for future research. All business and government organizations that can be affected by technological change inevitably engage in forecasting for the primary reason of making informed decisions. Technology forecasting is the systematic attempt to anticipate and understand the potential direction, rate, characteristics, and effects of technological change, based on assumptions about the external world. Forecasting gives probabilistic information on what is believed will happen based on current assumptions, providing decision makers with insights on what the future might look like to make informed decisions. An organization's withdrawal from a technology segment area is often difficult (typically due to sunk cost bias and general lack of information) and often occurs too late; resulting in financial losses and missed opportunities. The ability to predict when a technology sector has reached maturity has high financial implication (e.g. when to exit from a technology sector and when resources should be transitioned from one technology sector to another.) A systematic review of technology forecasting and applicability to predict the maturity and obsolescence of a technology segment in its life cycle is explored. Guidelines for future research into forecasting the maturity and obsolescence of a technology sector in its life cycle are presented.
Keywords
Technology Forecasting Obsolescence, Systematic Literature Review
Introduction
William Shakespeare wrote, "If you can look into the seeds of time, and say which grain will grow and which will not, speak then unto me." No one can prophesize the future with certainty, but by understanding the likely and potential outcomes of the future, an organization can improve their chances of maximizing gain and reducing losses (Morlidge, 2010). This paper ventures to start the examination process to analyze if technology forecasting improvement can be attained by looking both at the emerging and declining stages of the technology life cycle of technology sectors. To accomplish the above goal, a systematic literature review of this topic area was explored, and recommendations for future research into forecasting the maturity and obsolescence of a technology in its life cycle are presented herein.
Systematic Review
The analyses conducted followed the systematic review process...