A theoretical and empirical examination of local level migration: the case of hereford and worcester

The major trends in British migration are the net flow of migrants from the North to the South and the dispersal of population away from metropolitan centres. Most of the studies which have considered these processes have utilised aggregate data at the regional or county level. This thesis considers these processes for the single shire county of Hereford and Worcester using 1981 SMS II census data primarily. It is concerned with ward level flows of migrants at three broad scales: within Hereford and Worcester; between the county and the West Midlands metropolitan county; and between the county and the rest of Britain. Most migrants in the county are expected to have moved for residential reasons. A statistical modelling approach, based on the gravity model, is adopted to test a number of migration theories. Philosophically, it is argued that theory must form the basis of analysis, but that observation will necessarily influence these theories. A number of general hypotheses are derived, the most important of which related to three levels of analysis. Thus, it is argued that: rural depopulation remains an important phenomenon at the local level; migration out of the conurbation area occurs over very short distances in general and is more adequately described as suburbanisation than counterurbanisation; and although the county is often categorised with the `North' of Britain, and in particular with `industrial periphery', it actually experiences migration patterns which are more in tune with counties in southern England. New approaches to statistically modelling migration at the local level were also tested. Certain variables were shown to be helpful in explaining migration at this scale of analysis. Migration was not proportional to absolute population and population density was useful as a surrogate of urbanisation. Contiguous flows are shown to be influenced by the location of the population weighted centroids which are only accurate to 100 metres.