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ABSTRACT
For processing observations of the terrestrial pole dynamics, the regression dynamic modeling (RDM) approach was used. With the RDM software package the models describing the dynamics of the terrestrial polar coordinates were built. This approach provides accurate combined models of observations which describe to some extent causal and deterministic communication and provide forecast of characteristics. A comparison of observations and predicted values of the terrestrial polar coordinates obtained with the RDM approach and by other researchers is performed. To solve the problem, the expansion of the RDM automated systems was made. The basic version is supplemented by new software modules for the developed technique and geophysical observations features. The RDM software package intended for processing geophysical characteristics contains the modules as follows: 1) A spectral window to transform uneven observations to even ones; 2) Cross-spectral analysis to identify common significant harmonics of two observations; 3) Kalman Filter to eliminate noise from the residues of a model; 4) Fractal analysis to verify the series on trendstability; 5) Set of wavelets; 6) Processing scenarios to build the best on the "external" standard deviation model of (SD) model of Time series (TS) automatically.
Keywords: terrestrial pole coordinates, regression dynamic modeling, software package
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INTRODUCTION
The method of TS processing includes the steps as follows: 1) transformation of the uneven TS to even ones with the method of spectral windows or by data averaging [1]; 2) fractal analysis of TS, trend selection [2]; 3) spectral and wavelet analysis; 4) harmonic components selection, application of the Kalman filter [3]; 5) building Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH model); 6) Autoregressive moving-average model (ARMA model) construction [4]; 7) smoothing of residues using the martingale approximation [5]. At each step reducing the "internal" and "external" SD, the significance of the error changes is controlled, and analysis of the TS model quality is performed [6].
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH: MODELING OF TS OF THE EARTH POLE DYNAMICS
The dynamic series of coordinates of the North Pole of the Earth from January 1980 to October 2010 (http://www.iers.org) are investigated [7].
Model the dynamics of the X coordinate of the North Pole
At the first stage of data analysis, within the DRM-approach, the hypothesis on series stationarity is rejected with a...