Characterization of flood and drought hazards on the Gereb-Geba water supply dam in the semi-arid northern Ethiopian highlands

Abstract

Evaluating the flood and drought hazards provides vital information for sustainable water resources management, particularly in semi-arid, water-deficit environments. Most prior studies were limited in exploring the flood and drought hazards, which are important for early warning systems and preparedness. This study characterized the hydrological extreme hazards on the Gereb-Geba reservoir, namely the Suluh, Genfel, and Agula rivers. Flood frequency analysis was performed using the fitted flood frequency distribution in MATLAB. The 2D hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS was implemented to produce a flood-inundation map. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), respectively. Using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), the estimated flood magnitude showed an increasing tendency in all the rivers across all the return periods (2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-years). The reservoir inundated an area of 12.8 km² at an elevation of 1830 m.a.s.l. with a water depth of 80 m at the outlet. Suluh experienced more severe to extreme hydrological drought episodes than the Agula and Genfel rivers. Severe to extreme meteorological droughts were also observed in the respective catchments. Moreover, severe agricultural drought prevalence was also detected across all the river catchments. This study provides vital and comprehensive flood and drought information for water resources planning, management, and development.