Content area
Full text
Contents
- Abstract
- Two Heuristics for Judging Risk: Availability and Affect
- Availability Heuristic
- Affect Heuristic
- Three Measures of Risk
- Hypotheses
- Study 1: Availability and Affect in the World of Cancer
- Method
- Participants, material, and design
- Procedure
- Results
- How well do availability-by-recall and the affect heuristic predict relative judgments of risk?
- How well do availability and affect predict absolute judgments of risk?
- How ecologically valid are availability and affect?
- Summary
- Study 2: Availability and Affect in a Classic Set of Risks
- Method
- Participants, material, and design
- Procedure
- Results
- How well do availability-by-recall and the affect heuristic predict relative judgments of risk?
- Could availability and affect substitute for each other?
- How well do availability and affect predict absolute judgments of risk?
- How ecologically valid are availability and affect?
- General Discussion
- People's (Fortunately) Limited Experience With Risks and Cue Substitution
- Availability, Media, and Judgments of Risk
- Two Limitations
- Practical and Policy Implications
- Conclusions
- Appendix A
- Appendix B
Figures and Tables
Abstract
How does the public reckon which risks to be concerned about? The availability heuristic and the affect heuristic are key accounts of how laypeople judge risks. Yet, these two accounts have never been systematically tested against each other, nor have their predictive powers been examined across different measures of the public's risk perception. In two studies, we gauged risk perception in student samples by employing three measures (frequency, value of a statistical life, and perceived risk) and by using a homogeneous (cancer) and a classic set of heterogeneous causes of death. Based on these judgments of risk, we tested precise models of the availability heuristic and the affect heuristic and different definitions of availability and affect. Overall, availability-by-recall, a heuristic that exploits people's direct experience of occurrences of risks in their social network, conformed to people's responses best. We also found direct experience to carry a high degree of ecological validity (and one that clearly surpasses that of affective information). However, the relative impact of affective information (as compared to availability) proved more pronounced in value-of-a-statistical-life and perceived-risk judgments than in risk-frequency judgments. Encounters...





