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Introduction
The sale of seasonal products is a major characteristic of many consumer goods and an important activity for the retailers who promote, sell and service these goods. A seasonal good is defined as a product that experiences drastic change in sales based on the evolving seasons of the year ([20] Kincade and Gibson, 2010). Inherent in the seasonal aspect of consumer goods is a reflection of the seasonal changes as measured in correspondence to the calendar seasons (i.e. Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter). This seasonality is compounded by the demand in the fashion industry for frequent and continuous change ([4] Bhardwaj and Fairhurst, 2010).
One of the characteristics of fashion markets is the ephemerality of the seasonal items, which means selling periods of the products are likely to be very short, estimated in months or weeks ([6] Christopher et al. , 2004). Careful timing of the sale of seasonal merchandise is of concern for retailers who handle these products. If the product is presented to consumers too early, the product will not sell. If offered too late, the demand may also be low and the consumers may need price reductions in order to be motivated to buy. Unless retailers take seasonal planning into careful consideration and co-ordinate through supply chain management, end-of-season stock will remain unsold ([1] Al-Zubaidi and Tyler, 2004). Systematic assortment planning of when to present seasonal products in the stores could affect initial sales and final sell-through. In order to control production and inventory effectively and ultimately to maximize sales and profit, the exact selling period of each item needs to be forecasted scientifically by retailers. These retail strategies are strongly held in the industry but are rarely tested empirically in the academic literature.
This careful preparation of assortment planning related to seasons may be further complicated with abrupt or unusual changes in the weather. Although weather has always changed as a result of various natural causes in the past, recently non-natural causes (e.g. green house gas) have been blamed for unpredictable weather fluctuations. Predicting the exact date for the beginning of a season (e.g. Fall) is a meteorological event but predicting the exact date for the first cool days becomes more difficult. For this reason, a number of retailers are currently...