The nexus between exchange rates and stock markets: evidence from the euro-dollar rate and composite European stock indices using rolling analysis

Abstract

Both the goods market hypothesis and the portfolio balance theory, suggest a nexus between exchange rates and stock prices, albeit with a different direction of causality. This paper, using daily data, takes up the issue of the linkages between stock prices and exchange rates in the case of the euro-dollar rate and two composite European stock market indices: the FTSE Eurotop 300 and FTSE eTX All-Share Index. It addresses the causal ordering issue between the two markets using rolling unit root, cointegration and Granger causality tests. This methodological approach allows for the emergence of a clearer picture of the possible dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices. The empirical results provide evidence of time-varying causality between the two markets. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]