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Cyclone Nargis storm surge in Myanmar
To the Editor Tropical cyclone Nargis (category 4 on the SaffirSimpson Hurricane Scale, SSHS) made landfall on 2 May 2008, causing the worst natural disaster in Myanmars recorded history. Official death toll estimates exceed 138,000 fatalities1 making it the eighth deadliest cyclone ever recorded worldwide. Sincethe 1970 Bhola cyclone, which caused upto 500,000 fatalities, Nargis represents the deadliest tropical cyclone worldwide and one of the worst natural disasters, withthe exceptions of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. The Bay of Bengal has generated seven tropical cyclones with death tolls in excess
of 100,000 striking India and Bangladesh (Supplementary Fig. 1). Damage estimates at over $10 billion made Nargis the most destructive cyclone ever recorded in the Indian Ocean. Here we analyse the cause of the humanitarian disaster based on physical and societal observations.
On 28 April 2008, Nargis was located near the centre of the Bay of Bengal and upgraded to a category 1 cyclone (SSHS). The tropical cyclone developed sustained winds over 210 km h1, with gusts up to 260 km h1, before landfall in Myanmar on 2 May as a category 4 storm (SSHS). It reached Yangon approximately 12 h later as a category 1 storm (SSHS). No previous
tropical cyclone track included in the International Best Track Record for Climate Stewardship database2 has made a direct landfall in Myanmars Ayeyarwady river delta at an untypically low latitude near16 N. In 2006, a similar tropical cyclone (Mala, category 4, SSHS) made landfall in Myanmar at 17.6 N causing only 22 deaths aer a well executed evacuation eort, and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, which aected Myanmars Andaman coast, resulted in only 71 fatalities.
Three months aer cyclone Nargis, access was granted to the hardest-hit Ayeyarwady delta for the 923 August 2008 storm-surge reconnaissance, which surveyed coastaland inland...