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Climatic Change (2012) 114:169188
DOI 10.1007/s10584-012-0403-y
Received: 22 September 2011 /Accepted: 13 January 2012 /Published online: 3 February 2012 # Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012
Abstract This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the factors affecting U.S. public concern about the threat of climate change between January 2002 and December 2010. Utilizing Stimsons method of constructing aggregate opinion measures, data from 74 separate surveys over a 9-year period are used to construct quarterly measures of public concern over global climate change. We examine five factors that should account for changes in levels of concern: 1) extreme weather events, 2) public access to accurate scientific information, 3) media coverage, 4) elite cues, and 5) movement/countermovement advocacy. A time-series analysis indicates that elite cues and structural economic factors have the largest effect on the level of public concern about climate change. While media coverage exerts an important influence, this coverage is itself largely a function of elite cues and economic factors. Weather extremes have no effect on aggregate public opinion. Promulgation of scientific information to the public on climate change has a minimal effect. The implication would seem to be that information-based science advocacy has had only a minor effect on public concern, while political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.
One of the earliest U.S. public opinion polls on global climate change was taken in July 1986, when the Cambridge Reports National Omnibus Survey asked individuals if they
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0403-y
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R. J. Brulle (*)
Department of Culture and Communications, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA e-mail: [email protected]
J. Carmichael
Department of Sociology, McGill University, Montreal, Canada e-mail: [email protected]
J. C. Jenkins
Department of Sociology, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, Canada e-mail: [email protected]
Shifting public opinion on climate change: an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the U.S., 20022010
Robert J. Brulle & Jason Carmichael & J. Craig Jenkins
170 Climatic Change (2012) 114:169188
considered global warming a serious problem. Since then, nearly 300 different surveys have been performed on this topic, making opinions about the threat of climate change an expanding area of intense...