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Mr. [Vuk Draskovic] and other opposition candidates have turned the election into a frontal attack on the Communists, ignoring the Socialist Party's claim to having reformed itself. In a televised speech this week, Mr. Draskovic said the campaign was "a battle between the Cross and the Red Star." At a rally here Thursday, he vowed "to stop the Bolshevik powers and their tanks and guns with the election ballots that are the bullets of democracy." Ex-Communists Defeated
National hostility -- between Serbs and Croats, Serbs and Albanians, Macedonians and Serbs -- have flared up throughout Yugoslavia in recent months, partly as a result of fears that Serbs, who dominated the Yugoslav state between World War I and World War II, are once again bent on asserting their power as the country's most numerous group.
In the debate over Yugoslavia's future, the Serbian government has opposed proposals by Croatia and Slovenia for a looser confederation, arguing instead for a strong federal system that would keep all the Serbs in Yugoslavia -- inside and outside the republic -- in a single state. In his interview this week, Defense Mininster [Veljko Kadijevic] supported a strong federal Yugoslavia, saying "the people will not accept recipes" for the breakup of the country "from self-styled messiahs and political adventurists." Calls for Negotiations
Voters will cast ballots on Sunday in Serbia, the largest of Yugoslavia's six republics, to deliver a verdict on a government whose raw blend of old-style one-party rule and aggressive nationalism has made it a central issue for the country's uncertain future.
The vote in Serbia completes a year of free elections held throughout Eastern Europe on the ruins of now-defunct Communist systems. With the exception of Albania, this Balkan republic of 9.5 million will be the last not only in the region but in Yugoslavia itself to undertake the initiation into democracy.
The Serbian election comes at a time when the survival of Yugoslavia is increasingly in doubt. Slovenia, a republic that borders Italy and Austria, has set Dec. 23 as a date for a plebiscite on whether to break loose and become fully independent. A recent poll in the republic shows 80 percent of potential voters favoring the move.
The Yugoslav Army has announced that next week it will reassert control over territorial defense in paramilitary units now under republican command in Slovenia and Croatia. Election Could Be Decisive
With signs pointing to a showdown in Yugoslavia's protrated crisis, the Serbian elections could prove decisive, given the instigating role played by Belgrade, capital of the republic, in disputes between the country's hostile nationalities.
Serbia's President, Slobodan Milosevic, who rose to head of the Communist Party in 1987 and has since built up considerable popularity as spokesman for a resurgent Serbian nationalism, is considered the favorite for re-election, although his party -- now renamed Socialist -- may not win a majority of the seats in the 250-seat Parliament. A second round of voting is set for Dec. 23, the same day as the plebiscite in Slovenia.
Mr. Milosevic's main rival is Vuk Draskovic, head of the Serbian Renewal Movement, which staked out an extreme nationalist position early in the campaign. Recently, however, Mr. Draskovic, a 44-year-old novelist whose shoulder-length hair signals a provocative style, has toned down his jingoist language, some say as a prelude to a possible coalition with other opposition forces against Mr. Milosevic in the second round.
Mr. Draskovic and other opposition candidates have turned the election into a frontal attack on the Communists, ignoring the Socialist Party's claim to having reformed itself. In a televised speech this week, Mr. Draskovic said the campaign was "a battle between the Cross and the Red Star." At a rally here Thursday, he vowed "to stop the Bolshevik powers and their tanks and guns with the election ballots that are the bullets of democracy." Ex-Communists Defeated
Although former Communists have been voted out of office in elections held in every other Yugoslav republic this year, some political analysts wonder whether Serbia may not have more in common with its Balkan neighbors, Bulgaria and Romania, where the old ruling parties were kept in power by a conservative electorate.
In the campaign, Mr. Milosevic has tried to portray the Socialist Party as the bulwark of stability in a changing and turbulent time. "A Socialist defeat could unleash dark forces from the country's past," said Mr. Milosevic, who has also warned of the possibility of a civil war.
Economic uncertainty, which in much of the rest of Eastern Europe followed political change, is already a real specter here. Although Serbia has so far resisted the painful aspects of economic reform, some observers predict that industrial workers will look to the former Communists for protection against market forces.
Mr. Milosevic may have a powerful ally in the Yugoslav Army, which is dominated by a Communist-indoctrinated officer corps, 70 percent of whom are Serbs. In an interview this week, the Defense Minister, Gen. Veljko Kadijevic, said, "The future, historically speaking, belongs to the idea of socialism, and the experience of developed nations shows that it is one of the most civilized achievements of the contemporary epoch." Scattered Violence
The Serbian elections are taking place in an atmosphere of controlled tension, amid scattered incidents of violence, some within the republic's borders, other in clashes involving ethnic Serbs in neighboring republics, particularly Croatia. Opposition spokesmen blamed politics for the shooting death of one Serbian Renewal campaign worker in southern Serbia this week, although others have played down the significance of the incident.
National hostility -- between Serbs and Croats, Serbs and Albanians, Macedonians and Serbs -- have flared up throughout Yugoslavia in recent months, partly as a result of fears that Serbs, who dominated the Yugoslav state between World War I and World War II, are once again bent on asserting their power as the country's most numerous group.
Kosovo, a region inside Serbia that has been the most troublesome of Yugoslavia's hot spots, has been quiet recently. Albanians, who make up more than 90 percent of the population there, are boycotting the election in protest against the Serbian government's move to strip the region of its political autonomy.
In the debate over Yugoslavia's future, the Serbian government has opposed proposals by Croatia and Slovenia for a looser confederation, arguing instead for a strong federal system that would keep all the Serbs in Yugoslavia -- inside and outside the republic -- in a single state. In his interview this week, Defense Mininster Kadijevic supported a strong federal Yugoslavia, saying "the people will not accept recipes" for the breakup of the country "from self-styled messiahs and political adventurists." Calls for Negotiations
The Reform Party, founded by federal Prime Minister Ante Markovic as a counter to the nationalist and Communist parties, is making a pitch to Serbian voters' Yugoslav sympathies and calls for negotiations between the national groups, including Albanians.
But with the exception of Vojvodina, a region populated by a mixture of ethnic groups, the Reform Party has failed to pick up wide support in Serbia. Nationalism has proved to be too powerful a lure -- which explains why other opposition groups, including those with liberal, pro-Western platforms like the Democratic Party, have supported the Milosevic government's position on Kosovo.
Since Mr. Milosevic finally agreed this year to open Serbia to the democratic process, the opposition has complained that it has had to compete under unfair conditions. Much of the mainstream press -- including the once-respected daily newspaper Politika -- and the television in Serbia have remained firmly under government control, although competing candidates were alloted time for a televised presentation of their views.
In recent weeks, Mr. Milosevic has chosen to stay out of the limelight, declining for instance to take advantage of his one-hour television time. Although widely criticized throughout Yugoslavia as having been the first to ignite national rivalries, Mr. Milosevic has portrayed himself in the campaign as a voice of moderation and a peacemaker in comparison with his rivals.
Voters in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, reading a campaign poster for Vuk Draskovic, a candidate for President of Serbia and head of the Serbian Renewal Movement, an extreme nationalist group. Voting is today. (Associated Press)
Copyright New York Times Company Dec 9, 1990