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Environ Health Prev Med (2013) 18:19 DOI 10.1007/s12199-012-0294-6
REVIEW
An overview of health forecasting
Ireneous N. Soyiri Daniel D. Reidpath
Received: 14 March 2012 / Accepted: 25 June 2012 / Published online: 28 July 2012 The Japanese Society for Hygiene 2012
Abstract Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting, and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medicine and health care intervention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigating actions to minimize risks and manage demand. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information and appropriate analytical tools for the prediction of specic health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting, and so various methods have often been adopted to forecast aggregate or specic health conditions. Meanwhile, there are no dened health forecasting horizons (time frames) to match the choices of health forecasting methods/approaches that are often applied. The key principles of health forecasting have not also been adequately described to guide the process. This paper provides a brief introduction and theoretical analysis of health forecasting. It describes the key issues that are important for health forecasting, including: denitions, principles of health forecasting, andthe properties of health data, which inuence thechoicesof health forecasting methods. Other matters related to the value of health forecasting, and the general challenges associated with developing and using health forecasting services are discussed. This overview is a stimulus for further discussions on standardizing health forecasting approaches and methods that will facilitate health care and health services delivery.
Keywords Health forecasting Principles Prediction
Forecasting horizon Health services
Introduction
Forecasting is about predicting future events based on a foreknowledge acquired through a systematic process or intuition [1, 2]. Some of the earliest forms of health forecasting date back to the period of Hippocrates of Cos (460 BC370 BC). Hippocrates studied the natural history of diseases and their major environmental sources (including food and water) [3], and believed that prognosis was an important part of medical treatment, because by forecasting disease outcome, the physician established his expertise for treating the patient [4]. He was able to develop and to forecast the occurrence of many diseases and conditions. One of the classical terms in...