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PARTICIPANTS | Beacon Economics = LA, California; Conf Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Global Insight = Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy, com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D. C; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D. C; Northern Tr = Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; Perryman Gp = The Perryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Canada; S&P = Standard & Poor's, New York, New York; U.S. Bank = Minneapolis, Minnesota; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D. C; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.
From all indications (both quantitative such as consensus economic variables included in the forecast tables and qualitative perspectives such as surveys of consumer confidence and business leader's confidence), the U.S. economy appears to be stuck in neutral. Nowhere in the attached tables of forecasts is there any indication of a return to a recessionary state. Nonetheless, spirit of noncommittal prevails. So, the good news may be that we are not backsliding into a downturn yet; the bad news appears to be that we definitely are not going to be growing much anytime soon.
Ray Perryman of the Perryman Group summed it up nicely with a comment attached to his forecasts, which cites an air of caution. That caution can...