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About the Authors:
Scott F. Heron
* E-mail: [email protected]
Affiliations Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Townsville, Queensland, Australia, Physics Department and Marine Geophysical Laboratory, School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
Bette L. Willis
Affiliation: School of Marine and Tropical Biology and ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
William J. Skirving
Affiliation: Physics Department and Marine Geophysical Laboratory, School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
C. Mark Eakin
Affiliation: Coral Reef Watch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
Cathie A. Page
Affiliation: School of Marine and Tropical Biology and ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
Ian R. Miller
Affiliation: Long Term Monitoring Program, Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
Introduction
Disease outbreaks have the potential to cause significant damage to coral reefs, not only as a consequence of widespread mortality of framework-building corals but also because of the consequences for many other dependent reef organisms and the resulting likelihood of phase shifts in community structure [e.g., 1,2]. Evidence from a variety of studies suggests that trends of increasing numbers and severity of damaging coral diseases over the past three decades [3] are linked to temperature anomalies. In particular, disease events have been observed to coincide with or follow episodes of coral bleaching in both the Caribbean and Indo-Pacific reef regions [4]–[7], suggesting links with elevated temperature and/or increased susceptibility of coral hosts. Moreover, a seasonal signal in disease abundance has been detected for a number of coral diseases on the Great Barrier Reef, with temperature being one of the most likely driving factors [4], [8], [9]. A recent modelling study also highlights the likelihood that some coral disease outbreaks are linked to extremes of water temperature, possibly by compounding other factors such as high coral cover [10]. An analysis of the effects of climate change on a number of terrestrial and marine pathogens and their hosts suggests that warming can increase pathogen development and survival, while also increasing host susceptibility [11]. For example, it has been shown that the surface mucus layer, which inhibits pathogen growth on healthy...