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SUBJECT:The outlook for Turkey's role in NATO.
SIGNIFICANCE:NATO deployed six Patriot missile batteries to Turkey in early 2013 to defend its southern border against possible air attack from Syria. The deployment demonstrated the continued importance of NATO membership to Ankara at a time when questions are being raised over the government's commitment to the alliance. In recent years, Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has often been a truculent ally, blocking closer cooperation with the EU and Israel, and making no secret of its desire to forge closer ties with other Muslim countries.
ANALYSIS: Impacts.
Turkey will seek to influence NATO policy rather than merely following decisions taken by other members, particularly the United States.
Other NATO members are likely to accept subsequent tensions as a price worth paying for Turkish membership.
Ankara would be a willing participant if NATO became more involved in the Syrian civil war.
Turkey will remain heavily dependent on NATO members for its defence industry needs, both for direct purchases and technology transfers.
Before they took office, leading AKP members frequently expressed their opposition to Turkey's membership of NATO and their preference for closer military ties with Muslim countries in the Middle East, with Turkey playing a similar leadership role to that of the United States in NATO. However, since coming to power in 2002, the AKP has adopted a pragmatic approach -- aware that under current circumstances, the benefits of continued membership outweigh the drawbacks. These advantages include:
Equipment.Although it is trying to develop its own defence industry, Turkey is likely to remain heavily dependent on foreign purchases, particularly for more sophisticated equipment. Most comes from NATO countries, and access, though sometimes problematic, is considerably improved by NATO membership.
Expertise.More importantly, NATO training programmes...