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Autonomous attack systems may be heralding the twilight of the aircraft-carrier era, but the venerable platform will remain important by returning to its pre-World War II operational roots.
More than two decades into the missile age a new breed of weapons has emerged that will greatly change the way we fight. Just as technology caused the battleship to be eclipsed by the aircraft carrier, soon the aircraft carrier will be eclipsed by the missile carrier. This is not to say the aircraft carrier will not exist in the future, but it won't retain the central position in power projection it holds today.
The reason the aircraft carrier rose to predominance above the battleship was the ability of the carrier air wing to effectively deliver force at far greater distances. While the battleship could generate much more firepower (by a factor of ten) in a short period of time, its effective range was too short compared with the airplane. A plane could find and deliver firepower at great distances, because the pilot onboard could navigate accurately to 200 nautical miles or more, locate enemy forces, identify and prioritize the targets, and guide the weapons to hit the target with reasonable accuracy.1
For decades, the U.S. Navy based its naval strategy on the perfection of high sortie rates, exerting power by the carrier air wing. Today a new generation of weapons is coming on line that removes the need for the pilot to execute the tasks that make the airplane an effective force-projection platform. While some would argue the unmanned combat aerial system (UCAS) has removed the centrality of manned aircraft, these systems are only a step in evolution from the missile age to the robotics age. With the UCAS, the pilot has been moved to a remote operating station requiring satellite and other communications for the same tasks pilots formerly would have performed in the aircraft. But technology is driving us to a point where even these connections to our combat systems will no longer be required.
Rise of the Planet of the Autonomous
Today we are witnessing the rise of autonomous attack systems (AAS). This is the inevitable next step in what some would call the Precision Strike Regime, others the Reconnaissance Strike Complex...