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Abstract
Many democratic theorists predict that elections will motivate policymakers to represent their constituents' preferences when they make decisions (e.g. Downs 1957; Mayhew 1974), and empirical research has found congruence between public opinion and policy at all levels of American government, including the city level (e.g. Hajnal and Trounstine 2010). My dissertation seeks to understand whether policymaking at the city level reflects genuine responsiveness to public opinion, or whether other influences actually determine policy outcomes.
I evaluate the effect of public opinion on policymaking in Chicago by studying three policy decisions made in the Chicago City Council: The indoor smoking ban, passed in 2005; the big box living wage ordinance which passed, but was vetoed successfully by the mayor, in 2006; and Chicago's unsuccessful bid for the 2016 Summer Olympic Games in 2009. I use survey data, referendum results, and demographic data to test for a relationship between the aldermen's positions and ward-level public opinion, and I use interviews and qualitative analysis of each case to evaluate the influence of public opinion, interest groups, and the mayor.
I find that public opinion does not have an independent influence on policy decisions in Chicago. Aldermen typically feel free to ignore their constituents' policy preferences because they do not believe that voters decide whether to support them based on their actions in the City Council. Instead, aldermen respond to pressure from the mayor and from large, well-financed interest groups. While Chicago technically has a "weak mayor" system, Chicago mayors typically wield tremendous influence over the City Council using machine-like tactics, making the position of the mayor difficult to ignore. Aldermen also feel compelled to respond to major interest groups because interest groups can influence local elections by donating money, providing volunteers, and relentlessly publicizing an issue.
Thus, policy decisions in Chicago are influenced by the position of the mayor and by the alignment of major interest groups, but they are not influenced by public opinion. These findings suggest that interest group activity might be an important omitted variable in studies that show a relationship between public opinion and policy outcomes.
