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In this article I seek to improve the dominant neorealist analysis of China's rise. I offer a neoclassical realist analytical framework in order to identify the influence of certain Chinese domestic developments and priorities on Chinese foreign and security policy behavior. Rather than reflecting a more self-confident and aggressive China, developments in Chinese foreign and security policy in recent years reveal an internally conflicted, inward-looking, and reactive China not yet ready for its new international role. Beijing is uncertain how to manage the challenges and the inevitable tension, both domestically and internationally, arising from China's rapid development. Keywords: Chinese foreign and security policy, Sino-US security relations, East Asian security, neorealism, neoclassical realism.
A GROWING NUMBER OF WESTERN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS SCHOLARS argue that China is developing into a more self-confident and aggressive great power that increasingly is pushing its own for- eign policy interests and demands.1 These scholars specifically refer to Chinese behavior toward smaller regional neighbors in Southeast Asia and to territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas. The ongoing modernization and transformation of the Chinese military, the People's Liberation Army (PLA)-including testing of new, more technologically advanced equipment and large-scale military exercises-are said to contribute to growing international uncertainty about Chinese intentions. The dominant expectation among these scholars is that as China becomes eco- nomically and militarily stronger, the more assertive and nation- alistic its foreign and security policies will be. This policy will be characterized by growing Chinese international ambitions and less willingness to compromise.2
However, due primarily to the neorealist theoretical approach that these scholars apply, most of them tend to ignore domestic Chinese developments, which in fact provide the main context for decisions on foreign and security policy If an analysis of Chinese foreign and security policy behavior in recent years includes domestic developments and priorities, and engages with debates now going on among Chinese international relations scholars, a more complex picture and a less predictable future scenario emerge. Those debates play an important role in shaping China's future course as a great power. A challenge currently facing West- ern scholars who seek to understand and explain Chinese foreign and security policy behavior, therefore, is to understand the diverse Chinese visions and arguments.
Compared to just a few...