A Neural Network-based Approach for Predicting Organ Donation Potential

Headnote

Abstract

This research proposes a potential organ donor prediction model using an artificial neural network-based approach to forecast the amount of daily incoming organ referrals and their medical suitability. The daily amount of incoming organ referrals and their medical suitability indicate organ donation potential. Predicting organ donation potential is vital for organ procurement organizations (OPOs) to improve staffing and scheduling practices. As a result, the objective of this study is to develop an accurate organ donation potential prediction model that can help the OPOs in achieving their mission to save lives. Several supervised artificial neural networks were designed, tested and compared with each other to identify best prediction accuracy. The experimental results and analyses indicate that the prediction accuracy for organ donation potential depends not only on the network type, but also on the architecture selection and the choice of inputs and time frame. The constructed neural network model shows good organ potential prediction accuracy with a R-squared value of 0.73. Hence, implementing such a model can support organ procurement organizations in their mission to save lives.

Keywords

Organ referral prediction, time series forecasting, artificial neural networks, organ donation

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1. Introduction

In the U.S., an average of eighteen people die while waiting for an organ in a daily basis. Additionally, the margin between organs transplanted and people waiting for an organ has drastically increased in the past twenty years [1]. There are fifty-eight OPOs in the U.S. certified by the Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services to bridge this gap. Each OPO has its own donation service area (DSA) in which it operates and receives organ and tissue referrals from its hospitals. OPOs are fiercely trying to close the gap, as their main goal is the recovery of organs and tissues for people in need of life-improving and life-saving transplants. Furthermore, OPOs are continuously looking for ways to improve donation practices and processes. The OPO's daily workload for transplant coordinators can be defined by the amount of incoming organ referrals and their suitability for organ donation. Thus, the organ donation potential in this research is referred to as the medical suitable portion of all daily organ referrals and is further explained below. In this study, organ referrals received by...