Brazil Agribusiness Report - Q2 2014

Abstract

Overall, we believe there is the most potential for growth in Brazil's soybean, livestock/dairy and coffee segments over the medium term. This is because of a shift in food consumption growth towards Asia for these items, while demand growth from traditional buyers will be subdued. We are more cautious about the sugar cane sector as a whole, as mills are suffering from low profitability linked to low global sugar prices and heavy debt burdens. Only the ethanol industry will encourage cane production growth, but it is still unclear if the government will continue to see biofuels as a priority in its energy mix in the medium term. In the short term, we highlight downside risks to the coming soybean harvests, especially as infrastructure bottlenecks could limit export potential in the coming years. Recurring weather concerns linked to climate will pose downside risks to all our forecasts over the coming years and to global prices as the country is such a significant exporter.