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The PCI data also indicate "strong year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter growth, even though the month-to-month comparison is worrisome," according to Ceridian. "The annualized number for June climbed 8.6%, the seventh consecutive month of positive yearover-year results."
The PCI "closely tracks the Federal Reserve's monthly Industrial Production (IP) index and forecasts expected results for the IP, which is released later in the month. Due to the negative June PCI report, the PCI is projecting June IP growth of 0.25%," according to the company. "On a quarterly scale, the PCI grew 6.2% during the second quarter 2010, down from previous periods. The weaker PCI number suggests a Q2 2010 GDP growth rate of only 2.5%, which is a positive number but not significant enough to put the unemployed back to work."