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In what ways do presidents engage in distributive politics? I study the effects of presidential electoral politics on the federal government's financial response to disasters. Specifically I ask whether swing states or safe states are more likely to receive additional disaster aid through presidentially ordered increases in the federal reimbursement rate for specific disasters. I examine four potential political factors affecting this distribution: swing states versus safe states, a president's base states versus the opposing party's base states, the presence of co-partisan presidents and governors, and the proximity of the next presidential election. I find that the effects vary by administration, with Bill Clinton not appearing to make partisan decisions in this way, while his successors include these factors when making the decisions. These findings demonstrate the presence of partisan political calculations in the distribution of disaster aid and also highlight differences in the ways power is handled in different presidential administrations.
Large areas of northern Oklahoma were hit by severe storms and flooding in the first two weeks of June 2008. Property damage was estimated to total more than $759 million, an astounding $198 for every resident of Oklahoma.1 That same summer Missouri also experienced severe storms and flooding. Property damage totaled $17 million, or about $3 per capita. Crop damage totaled an additional $58 million, bringing the total damage to roughly $14 per capita. Counties in both states were declared to be "federal disaster areas" by President George W. Bush, making affected jurisdictions eligible for federal reimbursement of 75% for eligible recovery and rebuilding expenses.
President Bush increased the federal cost share for Missouri to 90% of eligible costs a few weeks after the flooding while Oklahoma did not receive this extra assistance. President Bush's decision to increase the federal reimbursement percentage sent an extra $8 million to Missouri. Why did Missouri receive more favorable treatment than Oklahoma? The Oklahoma storms had a much greater financial impact on the state, and they definitely could have used the additional assistance they would have received in reimbursement at the 90% level. Partisan politics provides a plausible explanation. Missouri was widely expected to be a pivotal swing state in that fall's presidential election, and this proved true with only 3,903 votes separating John McCain and...