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Abstract: Former Defense MinisterAnatoly Serdyukov's reforms marked a serious effort to make real change in Russia's military. The ability to implement these reforms resulted largely from strong, committed leadership at the top and the impetus given by Russia's performance in the 2008 war with Georgia. Ultimately, Serdyukov was removed from office when his efforts ran into strong opposition from entrenched interests within the military establishment. The opaque nature of the military and its ability to manipulate the political leadership in an atmosphere of little public oversight suggests that prospects for democratization in Russia are dim.
"The army has 1.4 million men, but there is no one to wage war."
-Russian President Vladimir Putin1
Over the past few years, the Russian military has undergone what is arguably the greatest transformation that the country's armed forces have seen in decades. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, various reforms have been attempted, only to end in failure or minimal change. Based on past experience with reforms, it seems that the success of military reforms is largely dependent on a few factors: a stimulant for reforms, sufficient financial backing, as well as the political will, capability, and capital to implement reforms. Thanks to a confluence of such factors - including the August 2008 war with Georgia that created the "perfect storm" - recent military reforms have been much deeper than those seen in previous years, despite a long-standing clear need for such changes.
With the ousting of the leader of these reforms, former Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, the future path of these developments remains unclear. Given the backing of Russia's top political leadership, Russia's military is likely to continue on the path of reform; however, future reforms may have a more limited scope than those undertaken by Serdyukov. Considering the many deep-rooted problems facing the mili- tary, any serious limitations to the reform effort will not be in Russia's best interest in the long run. A look into military reform efforts and Serdyukov's ousting also provides some insight into the level of democratization within Russia. Very simply, within democracies, there is a system of checks-and- balances. In Russia, in addition to a power structure highly skewed towards the presidency, there seems to exist an internal balance of...