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This article examines Libya's troubled transition from Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi's authoritarian regime. The author asks what past transitions tell us about possible positive pathways from authoritarian rule and what Libya can learn from its previous failures in development in order to shed light on why Libya is struggling in its transition from regime change to economic and political development. The article concludes by identifying Libya's uniqueness with its "shallow state," its deep regional and tribal rivalries, and distributive economy, which together are currently incapacitating progress towards sustainable development.
"When the winds oppose each other, the mast suffers."1
"Sale and purchase breaks the chains of poverty"2
The Arab revolutions in 2011 and youth-led agitation across the Middle East and North Africa gave cause to hope for positive political and economic development in the region. Subsequent conflicts now call into question the region's potential to develop a prosperous and pluralistic future. The overthrow of the regime of dictator Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi in Libya offered Libyans a huge opportunity to craft a new state after a history of occupation and dictatorship. But the sacrifices and hopes of the revolution are in danger of turning to drift, infighting, and disillusionment as Libya struggles with tribal, ethnic, local, and regional rivalries suppressed by 42 years of Qadhafi's rule. In the three years since, the transition has faced a fragmentation of political leadership, collapse of internal security, an increase in economic disputes, and a legacy of neglect and corruption.
Libya has huge advantages over other Middle East and North African transition states that make it an important case study in Arab political and economic transition. Libya is not encumbered by Egypt's "deep state" with entrenched economic and political interests that stymied the transition from the regime of former president Husni Mubarak. Libya's state structures need to be built from scratch.3 Unlike mukhabarat (secret police) states with their extensive and enduring internal security apparatuses, Qadhafi's security state collapsed with him. Moreover, Libya is a resource-rich economy with a small population of six million people to sustain.4 Why then, despite these apparent advantages, is Libya not making greater headway in building a secure, prosperous, and democratic state?
Libya seemed to some to have been embarked on a new development path after 2003, when Qadhafi...