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SUMMARY The North Korean cyber attack against Sony Pictures Entertainment in connection with the planned release of The Interview raised important questions about the feasibility of deterrence in cyberspace, the protection of First Amendment values, and the responsibility of the US government to safeguard private networks. It also resulted in the unprecedented attribution of responsibility for a cyber attack to a nation state by a US president, despite public controversy over the evidence. North Korea has long engaged in provocative behavior on the Korean peninsula, recently including cyber attacks, but the probability of general war with South Korea remains quite low. Strategists describe this problem as the stability-instability paradox. North Korean coercion targeting a corporation on US soil in effect extends this dynamic into global cyberspace. It is impossible to deter all forms of cyber harassment, but policymakers can manipulate the threshold of ambiguity that makes limited aggression more or less attractive.
In late 2014, Sony Pictures Entertainment (SPE) experienced a barrage of network intrusions and disruptions, accompanied by extortionate threats. The hack ultimately failed to prevent people from seeing The Interview, a satire about a plot to assassinate North Korea's dictator, Kim Jong Un. On the contrary, it created an advertising bonanza for the poorly reviewed movie. The hack embarrassed executives, but it caused only minor financial losses for SPE.1
Yet the reaction of the US government was unprecedented, resulting in the first-ever attribution of a cyber attack to a nation state by a US president as well as modest retaliatory measures. The hack also raised important questions about foreign obstruction of First Amendment freedoms and the responsibility of the government to protect corporate networks.
Most analysis of the Sony hack has focused on the technical dimensions of the attack including North Korea's cyber capabilities and the evidence for-and against-attribution.2 There has been relatively less focus on the North Korean motivation for the attack and its implications for other asymmetric conflicts. Far from idiosyncratic, the Sony hack exemplifies the problems the United States and its allies face in responding to provocations that fall below the usual threshold for effective deterrence. Strategists describe this problem as the stability-instability paradox.
The low probability of general war on the Korean peninsula has long encouraged provocative behavior...