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Abstract

Unit commitment decisions made in the day-ahead market and during subsequent reliability assessments are critically based on forecasts of load. Traditional, deterministic unit commitment is based on point or expectation-based load forecasts. In contrast, stochastic unit commitment relies on multiple load scenarios, with associated probabilities, that in aggregate capture the range of likely load time-series. The shift from point-based to scenario-based forecasting necessitates a shift in forecasting technologies, to provide accurate inputs to stochastic unit commitment. In this paper, we discuss a novel scenario generation methodology for load forecasting in stochastic unit commitment, with application to real data associated with the Independent System Operator of New England (ISO-NE). The accuracy of the expected load scenario generated using our methodology is consistent with that of point forecasting methods. The resulting sets of realistic scenarios serve as input to rigorously test the scalability of stochastic unit commitment solvers, as described in the companion paper. The scenarios generated by our method are available as an online supplement to this paper, as part of a novel, publicly available large-scale stochastic unit commitment benchmark.

Details

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Business indexing term
Title
Toward scalable stochastic unit commitment. Part 1: load scenario generation
Publication title
Energy Systems; Gainesville
Volume
6
Issue
3
Pages
309-329
Publication year
2015
Publication date
Sep 2015
Publisher
Springer Nature B.V.
Place of publication
Gainesville
Country of publication
Netherlands
Publication subject
ISSN
18683967
e-ISSN
18683975
Source type
Scholarly Journal
Language of publication
English
Document type
Feature
ProQuest document ID
1700462419
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/toward-scalable-stochastic-unit-commitment-part-1/docview/1700462419/se-2?accountid=208611
Copyright
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015
Last updated
2024-12-01
Database
ProQuest One Academic