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Abstract
We use balance theoretic ideas to study the dynamics of the international system of nations in a network of signed relations from 1946 through 1999. Using the Correlates of War data for this period, we apply pre-specified signed blockmodeling to characterize the fundamental structure of this network. Even though the system expanded greatly with many ties being created and/or destroyed, the basic structure remained the same but with new positions being added over time. The blockmodels generated temporal measures of imbalance, as did the counts of imbalanced triples. Regardless of using the line index of imbalance or the number of imbalanced 3-cycles, the results provided decisive evidence contradicting the balance theoretic hypothesis of signed networks moving towards balanced states. Structural balance theory remains very useful by pointing to the more important study of how and why signed networks move towards and away from balance at different points over time. Some major methodological problems for studying signed networks, regardless of whether they involve nations or human actors, were raised and addressed. Proposals for future research are suggested for modeling and understanding the dynamics of signed networks.
1. Introduction
A considerable effort (see below) has gone into the study of international relations between nations as sovereign entities.1 This work has included the use of structural balance theory for signed social relations in the version based on the work of Heider (1946) and its formalization by Cartwright and Harary (1956). Within the structural balance approach there are several prominent concerns. Given a definition of a balanced network (defined below), one is whether an empirical signed network is balanced or not. A second concern, for imbalanced networks, is to measure the extent to which they depart from being balanced. A third concern is to understand the dynamics of movement towards (or away from) balance with the presumption that signed networks move towards a balanced state.2 Using balance theory to study international relations was a natural application. Here, we consider these three concerns but use temporal global signed networks rather than partial networks for local regions for a particular point in time. This permits a more extensive study of the dynamics of structural balance and sheds considerable light on the dynamics of international signed relations.
Our primary objective...