A spatio-temporal analysis of pedestrian tsunami evacuation in Long Beach, California

Abstract

This thesis presents a general tsunami hazard assessment for the City of Long Beach, California. Although relatively rare, tsunamis from a variety of potential sources threaten Long Beach. An anisotropic, least cost path Geographic Information Systems methodology was utilized to model approximate population exposure numbers within a number of evacuation scenarios. The variables used in the model were evacuation speed and warning time. Potential vertical evacuation sites were deduced and included within the model to compare population exposure numbers with and without the use of a vertical evacuation strategy.

The results in accordance with the literature reviewed suggest that the implementation of a vertical evacuation strategy, in addition to increased community education and preparedness, could dramatically mitigate risk and reduce the population of Long Beach's vulnerability to tsunamis, and that different areas may benefit from varying risk mitigation strategies. The implementation of vertical evacuation sites in the model decreased the population exposed by an average of 79 percent (with a mode of 99 percent).