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The Effects of Monetary Policies by CBRT, FED and ECB on Turkish Economy: An Analysis for 1994-2014 Period 2
Abstract
It is of extremely importance for policymakers to know how much time and what direction policy instruments affect macroeconomic variables in the selection of monetary policy instruments and in determination of how to implement in terms of the fluctuations in economic process. In this paper, the effects of monetary policies by CBRT, FED and ECB on macro economic variables in Turkey compared with each other considering high and low inflation regime by using TVAR method from the point of view of exchange rate channel, which is one of the monetary transmission mechanism between 1994:01 and 2014:10. Short-term (interbank) interest rate used as monetary policy instrument. The industrial production index has used to represent GDP as the measure of economic activity. Price level and exchange rate variables have measured by consumer price index and real effective exchange rate, respectively. Besides, crude oil has been taken into account as expiatory variable. The results show that CBRT short-term interest rate affects both industrial production index and real exchange rate ppositively, but they also Show that FED affects only the real exchange rate positively in high inflation period. The response of real exchange rate is positive to CBRT short-term interest rate. Elowever, this response is firstly positive then negative to FED and it is negative to ECB monetary policy. The monetary policies of CBRT, FED and ECB have also first positive then negatif effects on industrial production index, but they differentiate from each other in terms of the effect times of them. In conlusion, short-term interest policy the one of the FED monetary polices shown to be vital in the sense of Turkey once again.
Keywords CBRT, FED and ECB Monetary Policies, TVAR, Exchange Rate Channel.
JEL Classification Codes : C32, E00, E58.
Öz
Ekonomik dalgalanmalar döneminde politika yapicilarm para politikasi araçlarmin seçimi ve bu araçlarm nasil uygulanacagmm belirlenmesi açisindan politika araçlarmin makroekonomik degiçkenleri ne kadar sûre ve hangi yönde etkilediklerini bilmeleri son derece önemlidir. Bu çaliçmada, parasal aktarim mekanizmasi kanallarmdan dôviz kuru kanali açisindan TCMB, FED ve ECB para politikalannm Türkiye'deki makro ekonomik degiijkenler üzerindeki etkileri 1994:01-2014:10 dônemi için yüksek ve düçük enflasyon rejimi dikkate almarak...