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Demography (2016) 53:15111534 DOI 10.1007/s13524-016-0496-4
John R. Logan1 & Sukriti Issar2 & Zengwang Xu3
Published online: 16 August 2016# Population Association of America 2016
Abstract Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 19702005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawala form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harms way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices.
Keywords Disaster. Hurricane . Resilience . Migration . U.S. Gulf Coast
Introduction
In recent years, the demographic implications of extreme weather events have received increasing attention. In the United States, major hurricanes have caused more damage
* John R. Logan [email protected]
1 Department of Sociology, Brown University, Box 1916, Providence, RI 02912, USA
2 Observatoire Sociologique du Changement, Sciences Po, 75007 Paris, France
3 Department of Geography, University of WisconsinMilwaukee, Milwaukee, WI 53211, USA
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Web End = Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 19702005
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to local populations and ecosystems than any other natural disaster (Pielke and Landsea 1998; Pielke et al. 2008).1 Hurricane Katrina is the most compelling example, displacing 400,000 people, and affecting 90,000 square miles of the Gulf Coast (FEMA 2005). In New Orleans, Hurricane Katrina caused flood damage to 83 % of census...