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RUSSIA'S NAVAL FUTURE: BLUE-WATER OVERREACH?
Great powers need great navies-this concept was promoted by legendary Cold War Soviet Navy Admiral Sergey Gorshkov, and his strategic thinking has reemerged as the intellectual foundation for Russian sea power.1 Russian leaders seek to gain prosperity, security, and influence from maritime commercial enterprise and a navy with global reach. The latest Russian national security documents take the nation's great power status for granted and expect the Russian Federation Navy (RFN) to rival the U.S. Navy around the world. The Soviet Union collapsed, however, while pursuing unsustainable strategies. The realities of Russia's underdeveloped maritime sector make it clear that the big talk is unrealistic. The aspiration to be a first-rate maritime power is beyond Russia's maritime potential and industrial capacity, and Russia's ambitions in the world's oceans are out of reach.2
The Russians face a serious dilemma when deciding the future direction of the RFN, which is undergoing a much-needed modernization. One option envisions fulfilling political aspirations with a "blue water expeditionary navy," another emphasizes a "green water defense force" with mass and depth.3 The more prudent choice for Russia would be to develop a capable antiaccess and area denial (A2/AD) force to supplement its proficient submarine force. Russia is capable of being a regional naval power in local theaters of choice.4 But large-scale efforts to develop an expensive expeditionary navy with aircraft carriers and amphibious warfare ships only would diminish Russia's geographically overstretched homeland defense forces. Thus, the biggest threat to creating a strategically balanced, capable, and sustainable RFN is an illusory policy driven by national pride and aiming too high.
Security Strategy & Maritime Economy
Russia acts with renewed confidence and an uncompromising attitude toward the West, which lately has been raising concerns of a return to the Cold War. Russian President Vladimir Putin and his inner circle-in accordance with classic political realism- believe that Russia and other powers must challenge the United States to restore the power balance of the international system and prevent intervention in their internal affairs or vital security interests.5 Putin's pursuit of strategic partnerships with China, India, and even Iran are intended to enhance I their shared influence and security, as well i as develop commercial relationships.6 As a | result, maritime...