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On 5 December 2013, France launched Operation Sangaris in the Central African Republic (CAR). In the days that followed, there were harsh debates about the operations likely effectiveness. Critics pointed to the low numbers of French and multinational troops, given the complexity of the mission and the scale of the operational area. They also pointed out that, in terms of military effectiveness, Operation Sangaris appeared likely to be less effective than Operation Serval (2013-2014), despite their fundamentally different natures. Serval was launched in Mali eleven months prior, and "many French and foreign observers were surprised by both the swiftness of the deployment and the promptness of results"1
However, in Sangaris, French soldiers did have successes: they were able to adapt to the context and become militarily effective.2 Indeed, Sangaris did not resolve the CAR's crisis, but it helped avoid genocide, it jump-started the disarmament process while fostering a nascent administrative structure, and it restored the supply of essential goods-all of this with relatively few casualties.3 Above all, Sangaris managed to be a "bridging operation" to the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic, known as MINUSCA, and bridging to MINUSCA was the desired end state.4
Therefore, Sangaris shows how adapting at tactical and operational levels and accepting risk can ensure a limited military intervention achieves the desired end state. Nonetheless, questions about the sustainability of the end state conditions are warranted, and we address them here.
A Look at the Numbers
The number of international and French forces combined in the CAR increased from 4,500 in December 2013 to 11,700 in August 2015. France deployed 1,600 troops in December 2013, their number grew to 2,000 in February 2014, and French forces were reduced to 900 in June 2015. The Africaled International Support Mission in the Central African Republic, known as MISCA, provided 4,500 soldiers as of December 2013, later replaced by MINUSCA.5 By August 2015, MINUSCA had 10,800 troops in the CAR. The European Union force, known as EUFOR-RCA, deployed 700 soldiers in June 2014. These numbers, depending on the period under examination, represent a 1.1 to 2.2 ratio of soldiers per 1,000 inhabitants-far lower than standard force recommendations for a stabilization operation.6 Experts recommend 10-20 soldiers per 1,000 inhabitants.7 Moreover,...