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http://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.1007/s00382-016-3041-7&domain=pdf
Web End = Clim Dyn (2016) 47:37833801
http://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.1007/s00382-016-3041-7&domain=pdf
Web End = DOI 10.1007/s00382-016-3041-7
North Pacic decadal variability in the CMIP5 last millennium simulations
Laura E. Fleming1,2 Kevin J. Anchukaitis1,3
Received: 22 October 2014 / Accepted: 13 February 2016 / Published online: 26 February 2016 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016
patterns, spectral characteristics, and teleconnections to terrestrial regions used in paleoclimate proxy reconstructions.In these simulations, the PDO shows no consistent response to solar or volcanic forcing.
Keywords Decadal Pacic PDO General circulation models CMIP5 Last millennium
1 Introduction
Decadal variability in the Pacic oceanatmosphere system is an important feature of the global climate system. It inuences regional temperature trends (Wang et al. 2009; Meehl et al. 2012; Weaver 2013; Deser et al. 2014) and is associated with plateaus in the rate of global surface temperature warming (e.g. Meehl et al. 2013; Brown et al. 2014). Decadal variability is associated with persistent hydroclimate anomalies over the adjacent continents (McCabe et al. 2004b; Gu and Adler 2012), and may therefore have both immediate and long-lasting consequences for society, infrastructure, and ecosystems (Keenlyside et al. 2008; Buckley et al. 2010; Swetnam and Betancourt 2010). However, our understanding of these decadal and multidecadal-scale oceanatmosphere processes is restricted by both the long time scales of the phenomena and the limited length of the observational record, which also occurs entirely during an epoch of anthropogenic inuence on the climate system. The Pacic decadal oscillation (PDO; Mantua et al. 1997; Zhang et al. 1997; Mantua and Hare 2002) is the leading mode of North Pacic sea surface temperatures (SST) and displays quasi-periodic bidecadal (1030 years) and multidecadal (5070 years) variability (Minobe 1997, 1999), and therefore instrumental observations at these time scales are extremely limited. The PDO appears to have experienced regime shifts
Abstract The Pacic oceanatmosphere system exerts an important inuence on the climate of Asia and North America, but the limited length of the observational record prevents a complete understanding of its bidecadal and multi-decadal time scales. Paleoclimate reconstructions provide one source of information on longer time scales, although they differ in their estimation of the behavior of the Pacic decadal oscillation (PDO) prior to the instrumental period. Forced general circulation model simulations offer complementary long-term perspectives on both the history and...