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The Black Death and other severe pre-industrial epidemics, frequently referred to as "plagues," fill the public imagination. They are often identified as crucial turning points in history that sometimes led to the collapse of societies and sometimes paved the road for impressive growth. It is no surprise then that plague features conspicuously in some debates in social and natural sciences: from traditional narratives on the rise of Europe (e.g., North and Thomas 1973) to the social and demographic impact of Ebola (e.g., Ó Gráda 2015). Pre-industrial epidemics are useful illustrations of large-scale mass mortality caused by infectious diseases. Indeed, popular science makes comparison to the Black Death in relation to current outbreaks of avian flu, Ebola, or Zika.
Few studies grasp the full complexity of these potentially world-shaping phenomena. Most fail to take into consideration active debates on the nature of the epidemics, the agents that caused them, the changing characteristics of pathogens and diseases over time, and other aspects that are of crucial relevance to assess their economic implications. Even basic terminology is confusing. Although many of the worst pre-industrial epidemics appear to have been caused by the bubonic plague, the range of epidemics that are referred to as "plagues" is much larger. Far from being a superficial debate on terminology, this is of substantial importance. The nature and consequences of infections depend on the specific agent; vagueness in language makes it difficult to properly interpret historical documentation, navigate the scientific and popular literature, and generally understand the phenomenon.
Recent developments suggest that it is time to reassess the economic implications of plague and other infections (e.g., Cohn 2007a; Bosker et al. 2008; Campbell 2010a, 2016; Alfani 2013a; Ó Gráda 2015). Indeed, given the importance for social science of understanding both the determinants of mortality and its consequences (Cutler, Deaton, and Lleras-Muney 2006), increasing interest in the role of disease in determining the path of economic development (Diamond 1997; Acemoglu, Robinson, and Johnson 2003; Nunn and Qian 2010) focuses attention on major epidemics. Some authors have claimed that the Black Death--the most iconic wave of the plague--is a key element in Europe's divergence from the rest of the world (e.g., Epstein 2000; Clark 2007; Voigtländer and Voth 2013).
This Review and Reflection...