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1. Introduction
In the U.S., smoking prevalence has declined over time, from approximately 33% in 1980, 26% in 1990, 23% in 2010, and 18% in 2013 [1]. Policies that aim to generate revenue and reduce smoking have likely contributed to the decline [2,3]. Nevertheless, cigarette smoking continues to be a major public health problem in the U.S., resulting in approximately 480,000 deaths each year from smoking-related diseases [3].
Work to date suggests that there is considerable heterogeneity in cigarette tax policies between and within states; and suggests that heterogeneity in pricing may be hampering public health tobacco control efforts. Yet, only a few U.S. studies have provided a detailed characterization of cigarette price heterogeneity within states and counties by examining store-level prices. Three U.S. studies analyzed store-level price data [4,5,6] but they all focused on short time periods (≤2 year) and two focused on only a single geographic region [4,6].
One potential reason for local heterogeneity is due to differences in how much tobacco taxes are passed onto consumers. In the U.S., tobacco tax policy has used indirect taxes levied on the tobacco producer or vendor (“excise taxes”). Results of prior studies have been mixed regarding whether tobacco excise taxes are in fact fully passed on to the consumer [7,8], only partially passed on [5], or over-shifted [4,6,9,10,11]. Several studies have identified geographic differences in the pass-through rate [4,5] and two studies found differences by socioeconomic status [5,6], factors which may contribute to local variation in cigarette prices.
The implementation of smoking bans is another potential contributor to local variability in cigarette prices. If bans decrease demand, then manufacturers may decide to lower prices and reduce their profit margin. Alternately, manufacturers may decide to accept lower volume sales and raise prices to maintain revenue. To date, the relationship between bans and prices is understudied. Only one study addressed this question using state-level price data from 1960-1990, and found significantly lower prices in localities with more stringent anti-smoking laws [9].
In general, previous studies have described declining smoking prevalence following the introduction of tobacco tax increases [2,12] and indoor smoking bans in workplaces [13]. Recently, a few studies have analyzed effects of smoking bans in a small number of localities (including hospitality bar and restaurants) and...