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Dr. Olsen is Nursing Instructor, Wisconsin Indianhead Technical College, Rice Lake, Wisconsin.
The author has disclosed no potential conflicts of interest, financial or otherwise.
The threat of a nursing shortage in the coming years remains a significant concern ( American Association of Colleges of Nursing, 2014 ). Meeting the care needs of an aging population in the face of Baby Boomer nurse retirements will necessitate 1.05 million more nurses by 2022 ( Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2013 ). To accomplish this, more nursing program graduates are needed. However, more than 30% of qualified applicants are turned away each year, primarily due to lack of faculty and clinical sites ( National League for Nursing [NLN], 2016 ). This problem is further complicated by high attrition rates among the students who do enter into nursing programs. First-year retention rates are reportedly 87% for bachelor of science in nursing (BSN) programs and 80% for associate degree nursing (ADN) programs ( NLN, 2016 ). In addition, graduation rates of 67% have been reported by some schools and others have reported on-time graduation rates as low as 3% ( Work, 2008 ). Such high attrition is problematic for multiple reasons. In addition to contributing to the nursing shortage, it may reduce tuition revenue for nursing schools, ineffectively use financial aid resources, and cause student, family member, and faculty distress. Therefore, it is critical that nursing programs ensure that admitted students are well positioned for success. Establishing effective admission criteria can help achieve this goal ( Wolkowitz & Kelley, 2010 ).
Despite recent initiatives to increase the number of BSN-prepared nurses, 61% of prelicensure nursing graduates are from ADN programs ( NLN, 2016 ). Currently, ADN graduates are essential for meeting the needed numbers and desired diversity in the nursing workforce ( Fulcher & Mullin, 2011 ). However, the majority of research on admission criteria and factors associated with success in nursing programs has focused on BSN students ( Czubatyj, 2010 ). For example, a meta analysis of studies reported associations between program completion and academic variables, including entrance examination scores with the strongest evidence in support of preprogram grade point average (GPA), specifically GPAs in science courses ( Campell & Dickson, 1996 ). Demographic factors that predicted success were parents'...