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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts believe new wind and solar capacity additions in the U.S. through 2030 could total 200 GW, putting conventional thermal power generators at risk of seeing their market share diminish.
Goldman pointed to the ongoing fulfillment of 30 individual state renewable portfolio standards, or RPS programs, and growth in corporate renewable procurement as among the chief catalysts guiding its forecast, in a July 23 report titled, "Headed to 200 GWs," with RPS states driving the addition of 90 GW of new wind or solar by 2030, and corporate procurement driving an additional 35 GW. Declining installation costs overall could also drive renewable development growth in states without RPS programs by 20 GW, in Goldman's forecast, and further penetration of distributed generation, adding 55 GW to the total calculation. The 200 GW forecast figure is an increase from the 160 GW estimate the bank issued in January. Cumulatively, the bank expects 322 GW total of installed renewable capacity by 2030, accounting for the 120 GW of existing capacity in 2016 cited in the analysis.
"The U.S. power sector already appears in the early stages of a technological mix revolution...