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PERHAPS YOU ARE BACK for new evidence of the Internet's coming catastrophic collapse, or to see whether I've finally recanted the unpopular prediction made here in December. (See"Predicting the Internet's catastrophic collapse and ghost sites galore in 1996," Dec. 4,1995, page 61.)
Well, this week the collapse is foreshadowed in market research I've extracted from International Data Corp., Info World's sister company, of which I'm a director.
At the end of 1995, IDC analyst Frank Gens polled many of his 300 colleagues in 40 countries before predicting that during 1996 the Internet will move from "intoxication" to "hangover."
He ventured that 20 percent of Fortune 500 companies' commercial World Wide Web sites will either stabilize or be closed this year.
Gens anticipates disappointing financial results among Internet companies, the Internet stretched to the breaking point, and high turnover among underwhelmed Web users.
Frankly, Gens doesn't paint my picture of catastrophic collapse, but close.
Another Gens prediction is that Internet appliances will arrive in 1996, not for $500, but for $100 to $300. He expects...