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Abstract Based on the initial field temperature data of ECMWF 850 hPa from January 2012 to December 2015, linear interpolation method of ECMWF was employed to calculate the 850 hPa temperature values at 8: 00 and 20: 00 of 7 stations (Jiamusi, Tangyuan, Huachuan, Huanan, Fujin, Tongjiang, Fuyuan). Combined with the observed daily minimum and maximum air temperatures at the same time of the 7 stations, the correlations of the 850 hPa temperature values at 8: 00 and 20: 00 with the daily maximum or minimum air temperature of the ground meteorological observation stations were established, and the ground observation data in accordance with the relevant analysis and correlation test principle of the prediction equation for factor were primarily selected. Regression method was used to establish forecast equation dividing into counties, month by month. The results showed that the 850 hPa temperature values at 8: 00 and 20: 00 were significantly correlated with the daily maximum or minimum air temperature, and the established temperature forecast equation was of certain guiding significance for the forecast of daily minimum and maximum temperature, which could help to improve the forecast accuracy.
Key words 850 hPa temperature; Daily air temperature; Regression equation; Correlation
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The forecast of daily temperature is a focused issue in people's daily life and work, and it is also one of the most important indexes in the daily life and work. However, the influence factors of ground temperature are complex, making the forecast difficult. At present, with the extension of the prediction time and the increase of forecast spatial density, the current forecast method cannot meet the demand of the fine forecast. With the continuous improvement and enhancement of numerical prediction model, the forecast accuracy of different forecast periods gets increased, so it is very necessary to find out how to make full use of numerical weather forecast products, and to establish objective, quantitative and accurate temperature prediction equation using statistical regression model.
At present, the temperature forecast provided by European numerical forecast is limited to 850 hPa. In the actual operation, the 850 hPa radiosonde temperature has always been an important factor in the prediction of ground temperature, and special research has been carried out on it. CHEN,...