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After introduction of cocoa in early half of 20th century, it gained momentum in late 1990s only. Though the growth rates in area, production, export quantity and value were heartening, the actual situation of Indian export sector of cocoa products was disheartening. The paper attempts to quantify the changing structure of Indian cocoa products exports. Data for analysis was taken for a period of 16 years from 2000-01 to 2016-17. The Markov chain analysis was attempted through linear programming method to assess the transition probabilities for the major cocoa markets. The major Indian cocoa export markets were categorized as stable market (USA, China, & others) and unstable markets (Singapore, Netherland) based on the magnitude of transition probabilities. The major export markets for Indian cocoas were USA (14.9%), Nepal (11.6%), China (7.71 %), Netherland (6.94%) and Singapore (5.06 %). The holistic conclusion leads to the need of emphasizing on productivity enhancing research, measures to stabilize existing markets and tapping other markets section for improvement in this sector.
Keywords: markov chain, cocoa products, export direction, structural change
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Cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) meaning "food of the gods", a native of Amazon base of South America got its entry into India in the early half of the 20th century by Europeans. More than 5, 000 years ago pre-Columbian civilizations first consumed it as a fermented alcoholic beverage and it functioned as a currency in later times. Cocoa, being a rich source of antioxidants such as pro-cyanidins and flavonoids, which impart anti-ageing properties, is becoming increasingly popular with time. Trade of cocoa products comprises of mainly cocoa beans, cocoa powder, and cocoa butter fat and oil. It grows in a limited geographical zone, of about 20° to the north and south ofthe equator. Therefore, most ofthe world's cocoa production is found in West Africa wherein, Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana both collectively account for 60% of the total tonnage Essoh (2014). Whereas, America, Asia and Oceania, account for 18% and 10%, respectively. In 1980-81 the area under cocoa started declining all throughout India and the world because of falling world prices F ialor (1985). World production of cocoa beans decreased by three per cent to 4.236 million tonnes in the 2014-15 cocoa season. However, the...