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Somalia Briefing Paper
THE ARMED SOMALIA-BASED extremist Islamist group, the Islamic Union/Islamic Unity Party (al-Ittihad al-Islami: AIAI), presents a significant potential to further destabilize Somalia, at a time when the reintroduction of stable government is being attempted. It also has regional and international links which make it of broader significance in the Horn of Africa, with implications for the security of the Red Sea/Suez Canal sea lane of communications (SLOC).
A number of radical Islamist individuals and groups in Somalia have been reported to be loosely allied with each other under al-Ittihad al-Islami (AIAI). They are structured across clan lines and they appear independent of any factional control. This break from traditional Somali clanism makes AIAI and its allies an unpredictable force in the region, no matter what the current military/political situation. The AIAI has carried out terrorist and guerilla attacks in both Ethiopia and Kenya. Its financial network is expanding, which increases the group's ability to finance terrorist and insurgent operations. Analysis indicates that the AIAI will continue to focus its attacks on Kenyan and Ethiopian targets. However, it will also continue to aggressively expand its activities in the region.
Historically, the clan has been the overriding organizational force in Somalia, even though the country has the uniting feature of almost universal adherence to the Muslim faith. Even in today's politically chaotic environment in Somalia, various types of Muslim activities (such as the shari'a courts) tend to be organized by dan and work within traditional clan rules. The majority of Somalis are Sunni and are not strict in their application/enforcement of Islamic law. Clan law (xeer) and civil law have superceded shari'a law in the past; the former being limited to family law. Numerous pre-Islamic customs, such as veneration of ancestors as saints, still thrive. Somali political leadership is also quite secular in orientation and lifestyle. Somali pastoral life forces the culture to prefer pragmatism over ideology as a matter of survival.
To the extent that political Islam may be embraced in the country, this is likely to be more a result of pragmatic calculations than religious fervor. Politics combined with religion have been most powerful in Somalia when set in opposition to a foreign, non-Muslim threat (British colonialism, for example). Islam is...