China's Rise in Asia: Promises and Perils

Abstract

Halloran reviews China's Rise in Asia: Promises and Perils by Robert G. Sutter.

China's Rise in Asia: Promises and Perils. By Robert G. Sutler. Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2005. 297 pages. $69.00 ($24.95 paper).

This is a carefully researched, well reasoned, and balanced assessment of the most pervasive security challenge of our times, the emergence of China as a political, economic, and military power. Even more than the threat from Islamic terror, the strength of China will go far in determining how our children and grandchildren live out their hopes and ambitions.

The author, Robert G. Sutter, a scholar at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., asserts an intriguing argument: "China's approach to foreign affairs after the Cold War is strongly influenced by and related to the United States. Chinese leaders consistently view the United States as the greatest power in Asia and the most important power affecting Chinese interests in the region."

At the same time, he writes, "China's behavior toward the United States varied between postures of confrontation and cordiality." For the most part, China's leaders have calculated that they "needed the United States for economic and technological progress." In particular, China's export market in the United States in 2004 ran to $197 billion, second only to Canada's $256 billion and well ahead of Mexico's $156 billion and Japan's $130 billion.

Even so, confrontations pop up frequently. As this review is written, a Chinese general, Zhu Chenghu, has stirred up a good bit of dust by stating that China would employ nuclear weapons against American cities if the United States interfered with a Chinese assault to conquer the island of Taiwan. Several commentators brushed off the warning as so much bluster, but the State Department took it seriously enough to declare it "highly irresponsible" even if the general said it was only his personal view.

Sutter, who served as a national intelligence officer at the Central Intelligence Agency from 1999 to 2001, faults the Bush Administration for failing to frame a cohesive policy on China's rise. "The Bush Administration," he writes, "entered office without a clear China policy." Sutter said Administration officials recognized the increasing prominence of China but were unsure whether China would emerge "as a friend or foe of the United States."

When a Chinese fighter collided with an American EP-3 reconnaissance plane in April 2001 and spiraled into the South China Sea, the Administration "was prepared to see US-China relations worsen if necessary." Then, Sutter contends, Chinese leaders "seemed to recognize that if US-China relations were to avoid further deterioration, it was up to China to take steps to improve ties."

"Beijing saw its interests best served by a stance that muted differences and sought common ground," Sutter says. In response, he writes, the Bush Administration sought "to calm the concerns of friends and allies in Asia over the state of US-China relations and to pursue areas of common ground in trade and other areas with the PRC [People's Republic of China]."

After 9/11, the Bush Administration sought Chinese cooperation against terrorists and especially in dealing with North Korea's provocative nuclear weapons program. Sutter traces the ups and downs in US-China policy after that, concluding that the Bush Administration "has done a better job than the Clinton Administration in balancing a firm US posture against possible or real Chinese pressure."

Despite its merits, Suiter's book is marred by two serious flaws. The first is the absence of Chinese voices as primary sources to support what seem to be realistic conclusions. The author relies too much on the analyses of American specialists and other outside observers, rather than treating the reader to the thoughts and words of the Chinese themselves. Of the 52 endnotes to the vital chapter on the Taiwan issue, for instance, only three refer to sources with Chinese names. One endnote, in particular, says: "The author met with fifty government and non-government specialists in the PRC and forty such specialists in Taiwan during late May 2000." This reviewer longed to know the positions they held, even if they could not be named, and to read exactly what they had to say.

The second flaw is the chapter on Taiwan, which was relegated to the back of the book, Chapter 8 of 11 chapters. That made the Taiwan question seem to be just another problem rather than the most serious issue between China and the United States, as the Chinese have insisted since President Richard Nixon and Chairman Mao Zedong met in 1972.

Moreover, for an old China hand, Sutter seemed careless in some of his language about the Taiwan issue. He wrote of the possible "reunification" of Taiwan with China or the "return" of Taiwan to China. Many people in Taiwan, of whatever political persuasion, argue that Taiwan has never been part of Communist China and thus "reunification" and "return" are inappropriate words.

Sutter says President Bush has told the Chinese that he "opposes" Taiwan independence, which is erroneous. The President has said he "does not support" Taiwan independence, which is different in nuance-and nuance is the lifeblood of diplomacy. As another old China hand once said, the international debate over Taiwan has risen to the level of "theology," a theology worthy of the finest Jesuitical or Talmudic elucidation, and should be examined as such.