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FOR only the fifth time since 1978, the Dominican Republic held concurrent elections in 1994 for candidates at every level of government--presidential, congressional and municipal. The most important of these contests, for the presidency, saw the incumbent, Joaquin Balaguer, returned to the post he has held for so long, defeating his principal challenger, Jose Francisco Pena Gomez, by a margin of 22,281 votes. The most recent election, on 16 May 1994, proved to be just as traumatic and incident-prone as those that preceded it, dating back to the first democratic election in 1978. Unlike the last election (in 1990), however, in which Balaguer also won a narrow victory, this time the charges of electoral fraud were well-documented and the accuracy of the tally widely disbelieved, not just domestically but internationally as well.
Both the electoral process and the skepticism concerning its outcome serve to point up not only the continuing fragility of the Dominican political regime but also the low legitimacy accorded the state's institutions and basic political processes. At the same time, the 1994 elections, like the last three, were carried out absent any sustained fear of military intervention or large-scale coercion by the state. On the whole, the outcome of the election reflected forecasts by opinion polls with but minor (though consequential) differences. Paradoxically, it is possible that the electoral process may ultimately move in the direction of more significant, deeper democratization if certain measures, already initiated, are sustained: e.g. if (a) the various electoral and political reforms that were approved are not later changed and (b) others promised are, in fact, enacted. As voted upon in August 1994, these measures promise (if not modified) to hold new presidential elections in May 1996 (which would shorten Balaguer's term by 2 years), prohibit immediate reelection of an incumbent president (which would prevent Balaguer from running again), and provide for the holding of a second-round presidential election if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the first round.
Why are elections in the Dominican Republic, and the 1994 elections in particular, so flawed and prone to crisis? This article will argue that the most immediate causes appear to be associated with certain political-institutional factors that are related to presidentialism and the country's...