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"The public service and constitutional reforms undertaken by the prime minister represent historic achievements, but in recent years these have been overshadowed by the Iraq War. ..."
Every hero, Emerson once said, becomes a bore at last. The Blair era, an era of unparalleled success for the Labor Party that began so triumphantly in 1997, is now moving, inexorably, toward its close. Electorally, Prime Minister Tony Blair has been by far the most successful leader that Labor has ever had, the only one to have won three consecutive elections, two of them with landslide majorities. In fact, he has had a longer continuous run in office than any prime minister since the Napoleonic wars, with the sole exception of Margaret Thatcher.
Moreover, Blair has led the most successful left-of-center government in Europe. Of the three leaders who shared the new dawn of social democracy in the late 1990s, only he survives; both Lionel Jospin, the former French prime minister, and Gerhard Schröder, the former German chancellor, have departed in ignominy, almost forgotten figures. Yet, despite all this, Blair's current reputation is low, and recent allegations that honors have been given in return for party contributions have not helped. Indeed, survey evidence suggests he is now the most unpopular prime minister since opinion polls began.
This is unlikely to prove the final verdict of history. The twilight of a prime ministership, or of a presidency for that matter, is not the best vantage point from which to analyze its significance. In the United States, for example, the reputations of Harry Truman and Gerald Ford were low when those men left office, but have risen steadily since. Ultimately, Blair's tenure of leadership will be remembered for three things: for his reforms of British public services; for a wide-ranging set of constitutional reforms, most of which occurred between 1997 and 2001; and, finally, for the war in Iraq.
THE THIRD WAY TAKEN
Constitutional reform occupied much of Blair's first term. The second term, which ran from 2001 to 2005, was dominated by public service reform and by the war in Iraq. Both of these involved bold if unpopular decisions. Both alienated Blair from his party. Public service reform, however, is likely to be accepted both by the British...