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ABSTRACT This study focuses on forecasting the production and yield of food crops in Pakistan. Utilizing the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average" (ARIMA) model and data from 1948 to 2011. The data was obtained from Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Islamabad and various Economic Surveys of Pakistan. The result predicts that wheat (production and yield) forecast for 2029-30 to be about 37188 thousand tons and 3454 kg ha-1, respectively. The rice (production and yield) forecast for 2029-30 will be about 7176 thousand tons and 2630 kg ha-1, respectively. The maize (production and yield) forecast for 2029-30 will be about 5784 thousand tons and 6088 kg ha-1, respectively. In short, the production growth rate of wheat, rice and maize was higher in 2012.
Key Words: Wheat; Rice; Maize; Forecasting; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average; Production; Yield; Pakistan.
INTRODUCTION The agriculture sector in last 50 years was ignored both in developed and developing countries, because it was considered as a traditional and outdated sector. Although in 1960s, its importance was realized and measures were taken for its development (Yaseen et al., 2005). Since 1960 the balanced growth between industrial and agriculture sector were underlined. During last few years the major crop remained the target of natural disaster as the growth of these food crops in the last four years was negative. The main food crops in Pakistan are wheat, rice and maize. Wheat is one of the major staple food and having essential station in devising agricultural policies. Wheat crop accounts for 13.1% in agriculture sector and 2.7% in overall GDP. Rice is the second major staple food crop and source of export earnings in Pakistan. It contributes 4.4% in agriculture and 0.9% in GDP (GoP, 2011).
To estimate forecast of total crop production in advance is very important for determining the prices, export-import policies and also for making possible for government to take correct measures of surplus and scarcity in the national crops production. Several studies forecast and find out constraint in the production of major food crops such as wheat, rice and maize in Pakistan. According to Muhammad (1989) and Hamid et al. (1987) in spite of these constraints in Pakistan, there are well known forecast for persistent growth in the area and yield of food crops.