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ABSTRACT
This study presents some solutions to encounter with the issues of estimation and prediction of morality tables in future in case of the shortage of data. This study used mortality tables issued in the developed countries as a foreign source by statistical tests, then, the best and most suitable sources selected. By parametric models as Simple-Azbelmodel, the solution is proposed by simulation, unpredicted risks of mortality tables are measured. To predict the probability tables, Lee-Carter method is applied. Results show that as the mortality distribution is an empirical distribution, the cumulative probability of mortality is occurred for gender for different ages. Insurance computation in the developing countries, encountered with the data shortage from qualitative and quantitative aspects to establish mortality tables and this table is used for prediction, computation and modeling the models of actuary.
JEL Classification: I10; I19.
Keywords: Mortality; Simulation; Hypothesis Test; Azbel- Model.
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1. INTRODUCTION
An actuary is encountered with the premium calculation and the calculation of premium which is dependent upon the changes of mortality rate in future. The population predictions or insurance calculations to study the long-term commitment of social security organization, retirement fund and life insurance companies require the access to the reliable information and statistics. One of the effective data in this regard is a suitable mortality rate table to show the present condition and the continuance of population. Thus, the insurance institutes and organizations use the life insurance tables of the countries similar to the age structure of the population of our country after making some changes. Mortality rate models are used for graduation and fitness of observed mortality rates. Some models are proposed by De Moivre, Gompertz, Makeham, Perks, Helligman and Pollard. One of the two-factor models to predict mortality rate is Lee & Carter model (Lee & Carter, 1992). This model is estimated by the Principal Components and by Matrix Decomposition; the independent components of mortality and traditional models and their importance over time can be identified. Now, Lee & Carter model is the appropriate model in mortality prediction.
2. METHODOLOGY
The mortality rate prediction in Iran has made some changes in mortality model and it is expected that these changes are continued and these changes are different....