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The alarming headlines and predictions of artificial intelligence (AI) replacing lawyers have no doubt created discomfort for many attorneys already anxious about the future of their profession: "Rise of the Robolawyers" "Here Come the Robot Lawyers." "Why Hire a Lawyer? Machines Are Cheaper." "Armies of Expensive Lawyers, Replaced by Cheaper Software" "Law Firm Bosses Envision Watson-Type Computers Replacing Young Lawyers." "Why Lawyers and Other Industries Will Become Obsolete. You Should Stop Practicing Law Now and Find Another Profession." And so on.
Despite these dire headlines, AI will fortunately not replace most lawyers' jobs, at least in the short term. One in-depth study of the legal field estimated that AI would reduce lawyers' billing hours by only 13 percent over the next five years.1 Other estimates are a little less sanguine, but still not projecting a catastrophic impact on attorney employment. A database on the effect of automation on over 800 professions created by McKinsey & Company found that 23 percent of the average attorney's job could be replaced by robots.2 A study by Deloitte estimated that 100,000 legal jobs will be eliminated by automation in the United Kingdom by 2025.3 And last year JPMorgan used an AI computer program to replace 360,000 billable hours of attorney work, with one report of this development observing that "[t]he software reviews documents in seconds, is less error-prone and never asks for vacation."4
As with many new technologies, there is a cycle of hype at the outset that creates inflated expectations, even though the long-term implications of that technology may be profound and enormous. As Bill Gates perceptively noted in his book The Road Ahead, "[w]e always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten."5 Right now, AI in the practice of law is more of an opportunity than a threat, with early adopters providing more efficient and cost-effective legal services to an expanding portfolio of existing and potential clients.
The use of AI in law will thus be an evolution, not a revolution.6 But make no mistake, AI is already transforming virtually every business and activity that attorneys deal with, some more quickly and dramatically than others, and the legal profession will not be...