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Population Research and Policy Review 23: 379398, 2004.
2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.379Advancing methodological knowledge within state and localdemography: a case studyDAVID A. SWANSONDepartment of Sociology and Anthropology, University of Mississippi, University, MS
386771848, USAAbstract. Much of the academic literature dealing with state and local demography
involves the development and evaluation of methods for estimating population. The
focus on estimation methods is not surprising because they are used in many states to
allocate resources. The quality control in regard to the validity and reliability aorded
these methods by the traditional academic peer review process is important because,
among other things, it serves to reduce the high potential for conict that exists when
resources are at stake. There are, however, methods being used by state and local
demographers that have not been subject to peer review. While not necessarily unsound, these fugitive methods serve to keep the potential for conict high because
of the uncertainty regarding their validity and reliability. This paper examines just
such a situation in the form of a case study. It is a discussion of a regression model
developed in Nevada following the 2000 census that led to conict over its use to
estimate the population of Clark County, Nevada in 2002. The discussion reveals
statistical and methodological shortcomings in this model that lead to an alternative
model not subject to these shortcomings. This example illustrates how this type of
analysis and discussion can lead to a wider understanding of methods on the part of
practitioners through the corrective process of academic peer review. It also suggests
that states in which estimates are used to allocate resources would be well-served by
subjecting new methods being considered for use to academic peer review before they
are adopted.Key words: Nevada, Population Estimation, Regression ModelsMany of the methods commonly used by applied demographers to
estimate subnational population have been subjected to peer review
through discussions and evaluations in the academic literature (Bogue
1950; Bouseld 1977; Cannan 1895; Eldridge 1947; Erickson 1974;
Hamilton 1964; Krotki 1978; Land & Hough 1986; Mandell & Tayman 1982; McVey 1974; Morrison 1982; Namboodiri 1972; Namboodiri & Lalu 1971; OHare 1976, 1980; Purcell & Kish 1980; RivesIntroduction380et al. 1989; Roe et al. 1992; Rosenberg 1968; Schmitt 1952; Schmitt...