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Abstract
Seismic Hazard assessment is essential component for seismic risk analysis, mitigation and emergency management. Researches assessed hazard in the selected parts of Pakistan including Baluchistan province. Seismic Hazard Assessment for Khyber Pukthunkhwa (KPK) province has been previously done on large scale, however no such work has been carried out for Baluchistan province. The seismicity and frequency major earthquakes in Baluchistan province, require detailed Seismic Hazard Assessment. This paper presents the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) of Baluchistan Pakistan, emphasizing on spectral acceleration parameters. Earthquake loading is defined in terms of 0.2sec and 1.0sec spectral acceleration. Seismic hazard is estimated in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) using Earthquake Risk Assessment (ERA) framework. This Framework is developed using Ambarasey's 2005 Ground Motion Prediction Equation for the assessment of hazard. A maximum Peak Ground Acceleration of 1.21 g, occurs in the district of Sibi, while minimum was found in Chaman of 0.03g using 1.0sec (S1) spectral acceleration and 0.65g at Quetta using 0.2sec (Ss) spectral acceleration. Seismic hazard mitigation strategies are recommended depending on the results.
Keywords: Earthquake, Seismic Hazard, spectral acceleration, Ss, S1, Attenuation, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment, hazard Mitigation, Baluchistan.
1.Introduction
The Seismic hazard assessment at world level has been carried out under the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) (Giardini et al., 1999). The seismic hazard maps for Pakistan have been extruded from world hazard map (Rafi. Zahid et al., 2011). After the major earthquake of Kashmir and Northern Pakistan in 2005, many researchers and organizations including Pakistan Metrological Department (PMD) and NORSAR (2006) have carried out the seismic study of Pakistan. The Building Code of Pakistan incorporated the seismic provisions, 2007 based on the latest seismic activity in the region and the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values were used for defining various zones in the country (Building Code of Pakistan, 2007).
Baluchistan province of Pakistan is located in the south-west of the country with Quetta as its capital. This province consists of 30 districts with the total population of approximately 6.5 million (PBS, 1998). District wise map of Baluchistan is shown in Figure 1. Devastating effects of earthquake have been witnessed in various districts of Baluchistan. The latest earthquakes of Awaran, Kech in 2013, Quetta, Ziarat, Pishin and Harnai in 2008...