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Dengue is a serious public health problem in Metro Manila, Philippines. Increasing dengue incidence has been attributed to climate change; however, contradicting reports show inconclusive relationships between dengue and climatic factors. This study investigates temperature and rainfall as climatic factors affecting dengue incidence in Metro Manila from 1996 to 2005. Monthly dengue incidence and climatic data for Metro Manila were collected over a 10-y period (1996-2005). Climatic factors temperature and rainfall were linked with dengue incidence through regression analysis. A predictive model equation plots dengue incidence (Y) versus rainfall (X), which suggests that rainfall is significantly correlated to dengue incidence (r^sup 2^ = 0.377, p < 0.05). No significant correlation between dengue incidence and temperature was established (p > 0.05). Evidence shows dengue incidence in Metro Manila varies with changing rainfall patterns. Intensified surveillance and control of mosquitoes during periods with high rainfall are recommended.
INTRODUCTION
Dengue is a serious public health problem in the tropical regions, particularly in Metro Manila, Philippines. Dengue infections are caused by a virus categorized in the family of Flaviviridae. There are four dengue serotypes based on the viruses serotype responses. Dengue infections are transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. The Aedes mosquito does not require an intermediate animal vector for the dengue virus. The Aedes mosquito is commonly found in urban settlements where it maintains a man-mosquito-man relationship. This relationship creates a system that continuously makes dengue infections a reemerging public health threat; 20 million cases are estimated to occur each year (1). The problem intensifies as more people continue to be at risk of acquiring the disease.
The present increase in dengue incidence has been attributed to various factors influencing the behavioral pattern of this infectious disease. Although the various factors are not fully understood, it is believed that the environment, particularly the climate, plays a vital role in people's health and well being.
Climate influences many key determinants that affect one's health. Changes in climate have been believed to favor the spread of diseases to new populations, and this greatly heightens people's concern toward the emergence and reemergence of infectious diseases. The risk of dengue epidemics arising from the occurrence of climate change is alarming because it enhances the vector-virus relationship (2). It is likewise believed...