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Abstract

A considerable body of work in AI has been concerned with aggregating measures of confirmatory and disconfirmatory evidence for a common set of propositions. Claiming classical probability to be inadequate or inappropriate, several researchers have gone so far as to invent new formalisms and methods. We show how to represent two major such alternative approaches to evidential confirmation not only in terms of transformed (Bayesian) probability, but also in terms of each other. This unifies two of the leading approaches to confirmation theory, by showing that a revised MYCIN Certainty Factor method [12] is equivalent to a special case of Dempster-Shafer theory. It yields a well-understood axiomatic basis, i.e. conditional independence, to interpret previous work on quantitative confirmation theory. It substantially resolves the "taxe-them-or-leave-them" problem of priors: MYCIN had to leave them out, while PROSPECTOR had to have them in. It recasts some of confirmation theory's advantages in terms of the psychological accessibility of probabilistic information in different (transformed) formats. Finally, it helps to unify the representation of uncertain reasoning (see also [11]).

Details

1009240
Title
Evidential Confirmation as Transformed Probability
Publication title
arXiv.org; Ithaca
Publication year
2013
Publication date
Mar 27, 2013
Section
Computer Science
Publisher
Cornell University Library, arXiv.org
Source
arXiv.org
Place of publication
Ithaca
Country of publication
United States
University/institution
Cornell University Library arXiv.org
e-ISSN
2331-8422
Source type
Working Paper
Language of publication
English
Document type
Working Paper
Publication history
 
 
Online publication date
2013-04-15
Milestone dates
2013-03-27 (Submission v1)
Publication history
 
 
   First posting date
15 Apr 2013
ProQuest document ID
2084952244
Document URL
https://www.proquest.com/working-papers/evidential-confirmation-as-transformed/docview/2084952244/se-2?accountid=208611
Full text outside of ProQuest
Copyright
© 2013. This work is published under http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/ (the “License”). Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License.
Last updated
2019-04-16
Database
ProQuest One Academic